The Uncertain Future of Autonomous Vehicles
San Diego recently held an Autonomous/Connected Vehicles Forum. 论坛的主要焦点是努力解决关于未来的问题-如何将 land use change with autonomous vehicles? 这些汽车将如何监管?我们需要什么样的新政策? When will CAVs -really- show up on our roads? And perhaps the biggest question of all, underlying all the smaller ones, 这是一个反乌托邦的未来还是一个乐观的未来?
IBI Group’s Oliver Hartleben presented “自动驾驶汽车:对交通和土地利用的影响“. Click here for larger image.
这次活动的报告倾向于乐观, 如果这项技术的推广在城市规模上得到很好的管理. In the presentation by SANDAG，它们确定了该地区的机遇和风险. 虽然cav有机会带来效率, social equity, and greenhouse gas reductions, there is also the risk of sprawl, increased vehicle miles travelled, and greenhouse gas increases. Similarly, Susan Shaheen from UC Berkeley, 确定了诱导需求和从公共交通的潜在模式转变，这是对自动驾驶汽车的主要挑战. 如果政策和规划不迅速到位，这也会导致车辆行驶里程的增加. In a The takeaway from the forum was that these challenges are all manageable risks; we will be able to shape a future for AVs that enhances our way of life, rather than diminishing it.
共享自动驾驶汽车将对土地使用产生巨大影响:解锁目前用作停车场的土地? Increase sprawl? #SDAVforum
— Eduardo Velasquez (@EduardoThinks) September 28, 2017
Hearing from @KomeA from @CaltransHQ 关于自动驾驶汽车复杂而乐观的未来. #sdavforum pic.twitter.com/gfvW6xAH3Q
— Colin Parent (@ColinParent) September 28, 2017
来自北美各地的多位IBI Group员工出来参加了这次讨论. 欧文办公室的交通规划师大卫·周(David Chew)总结了他当天的心得:
“CAV论坛最大的收获之一是围绕CAV最终到来的各种不确定性. 这不仅仅是交通角度的一部分, 但它影响了包括土地使用在内的广泛话题, design, safety, technology, economics, etc. 挑战在于确定如何解决这些问题. 一些与会者似乎支持这样一种观点，即我们依靠过去的技术进步来帮助引导我们走向更可持续的未来.”
View all the presentations from the Forum here and check out their curated reading list 更多关于自动驾驶汽车未来的思想领导力.
Photo by Tulen Travel on Unsplash
